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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ)

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To: Richard S. Schoenstadt who wrote (24519)	11/5/1998 11:35:00 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) of 31646

Richard; good post. I am out of TAVA at $6.50 before earnings. To fairly value TAVA you have to look beyond Y2K. TAVA's Y2K earnings are probably worth $0.50 to $1.00 per share. As a one time event Y2K earnings should be given a multiple of 1. After Y2K TAVA can expect reductions in both revenues and margins. They have no unique technology or expertise as systems integrators and are just another consulting firm among hundreds of others. I am guessing maximum annual earnings after Y2K in the range of $0.30/share. TAVA's share value after Y2K is probably $3.50 to $4.00 at best. Discount that to current value and you are in the $3.00 range for a fair value today. Other than as a momentum play, TAVA is certainly well above its long term value. Al

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