db, Today's selling was almost all retail, and I think that much was
profit taking. The big negative in yesterday's data was the final
phase I/II data for Panretin. The delta is very close to that
required for approval, and a failure to get approval would be LGND
(ALRIZ) first stumble. The interim data was 30% vs 9% for a delta of
21%. The final data was 27% vs 16% for a delta of 11%. LGND (ALRIZ)
felt that about 1/4 of the control lesions (untreated) showed evidence
of treatment, so the true result would be 27% vs 12% for a delta of
15% which is what was required (but its still very close). The
independent review of the controls indicates that they are at or below
10%, so assuming they don't change, a response from 25% or more of the patients
would provide the necessary delta. LGND (ALRIZ) is increasing the
population by 35 which I suspect will make the delta statistically
significant which will add to the approval arguement and make the
result publishable. I thnk LGND will come through, but I'm sure
that many are uncomfortable with the latest data. I haven't had a
chance to look at the early data and suspect that the response was
slightly better at the more optimal concentration which would be
used in the phase III study. It also would have been nice to have had
the leptin deal done. When I made my original prediction in November,
I thought that there was a good chance that at least one deal would be
announced. Reuter's indicates that it will happen this month, but
I'm sure many would like to see the terms.
There were however, several pluses. I just looked at LGND's latest
summary sheet, and ALRT256 isn't even listed. I had seen the
earlier in vitro data, but it is encouraging that the in vitro data
translates into two well established animal models (db/db and ob/ob)
for diabetes and obesity (which is what db and ob stand for). The
ALRT256 response was stronger than Targretin and its nice to have a well
defined back-up (I suspect Targretin trials will happen first since
it has already successfully completed phase I trials and is in
several phase II or phase III trials). The anti-retinoids should
also be interesting. Like anti-estrogens (Droloxifene, Raloxifene,
Idoxifene, Tamoxifen, CP-366,156), these compounds may have several
applications. The receptor specific retinoid also has obvious
clinical indications with fewer side effects. Thus, there was a good
deal of good news presented and I think that the sell-off is largely
technical. Many short term traders have hopped aboard and moved the
price very far very fast and many of the big boys missed the boat.
Its not unusual for the MMs to work the price lower, so the big boys
can hop aboard. Yesterday LGND's accumualtion distribution rating
returned to "A", so there have obviously been many buyers lately.
The ratcheting down of the price today has been due to burst
of 1000 share trades and its hard to tell if they were buys or sells
because they all happened at about the same time. Its hard to call
the price that the big boys will come on board, but there was plenty
of good news and much more to come, so I don't think they will miss
the boat again and I expect the big boys to be the primary force
behind a major upturn.
Henry |
