How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 476.93

+0.6%

Nov 25 3:59 PM EST

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To: DownSouth who wrote (12091)	11/5/1998 3:19:00 PM
From: ToySoldier	Read Replies (2) of 74651

Downsouth, first of all I didnt start with the attitude thing - who took the shot against Mr. Schmidt's statement? If it was a valid shot then I would not have had a concern about it, but it was not a valid shot. As for your theory on "the best technology doesn't always win", I cant agree with you more. I also will agree with you that NOVL will never regain the market dominance it once had in NOS. It wont lose any more and will likely maintain or grow some back - thanks in most part to NOVL's on-time execution of deliverables vs MSFT's horendously delayed NT rollout. But NOVL has changed their whole business model and you & many of the other MSFT-fans have not even realized that. This is good for NOVL that MSFT not realize this because MSFT would do aggressive actions to try to stop NOVL if it did notice. The latest MSFT FUD machine activity against NOVL gives me the feeling that MSFT top execs have just caught on. I think it was the Lucent announcement that made MSFT realize that the industry is sick and tired of waiting for a 1.0 version of Active Directory when a mature and scalable Directory Service with great momentum is already out there. MSFT has to stop this momentum. So I totally disagree with you that NOVL will lose the DS game. With a usable Active Directory still over 2 years away, NOVL has an excellent shot of cornering the market on DS. Once a customer has made a decision to commit to a DS and has implemented it, converting/migrating to another DS (specially when NDS can natively swallow domains and Active Directory completely within NDS) makes NO SENSE! If you truly understand the concept of DS then you would understand what I am saying here. But if your understanding of DS is based on what MSFT Domains can provide, then you have no idea of the true power of a mature, open platform, heterogenious DS. A DS is more than one point solution or one vertical component of an IT environment. A true DS will tie ALL of an organization's technology and business identities together under one "database". So if a company makes a commitment to implement a DS like NDS and starts to integrate all its technology and business objects into NDS and then populates NDS with all the data and metadata, then think about the logic in how difficult it will be to convert to any other DS product. Specially when there is absolutely no reason to do so. I hope you can understand this, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you do. As for selling my NOVL stock, if I had the extra cash I would start buyng NOVL stock (since I have no NOVL or MSFt or any US stock). I predict that NOVL's price will be in the upper teens by year-end. Lets see how well the stock does after the next Q earnings report in 3 weeks. Toy

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