Good afternoon to you all. Here are some important events you should be
keeping an eye on.
1] US Unemployment unchanged at 4.6%
Despite the fact only 116,000 new payroll positions were added, well
below the anticipated 200,000 figure, unemployment remained unchanged for
the month of October.
Analysts have interpreted this as evidence the US economy is holding up
well against the global economic slump. Having said that, investors have
taken the weak payroll figure as a sign of further rate cuts by the
Federal Reserve.
2] Alan Greenspan spoke today to the annual convention of the Securities
Industry Association. His biggest comment was that "investor fright that
had gripped world financial markets is lessening." Specifically, in the
weeks after Russia defaulted on billions of foreign debt, investors
rushed to safe investments and out of global equity markets. He then
stated "we are already seeing signs of reversals."
OUR COMMENTS
Taken together, investors have taken these comments to be bullish for
equity markets. The Dow is up over 100 points and is now in the 8900
range.
In our October 30 report we stated "we would anticipate continued short
term upward movement in the equity markets." As of today, momentum is
definitely with the bulls.
However, we have no reason to believe this equity market is going to run
into big trouble in the very near future. The fact of the matter is the
US consumer - and ONLY the US consumer - continues to carry the equity
markets forward. To accomplish this task, they had to dip into their
savings and save the lowest amount of after-tax dollars in recorded
history. You will agree this perilous situation can not continue past
Christmas.
Until then, we will continue to play the momentum game and trade good
quality equities in our portfolio. On the other hand, you can bet the
rent money is sitting in our bank account, as far from these equity
markets as possible.
Have a great day.
Regards,
Agora
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