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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (31470)11/5/1998 6:57:00 PM
From: diana g  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
Crude+Sector stock price -Statistical Correlation Analysis says: 'No Correlation'

Thanks for posting this, Slider!!!
I'm going to point to it again, just because I want to.<G>
messages.yahoo.com@m2.yahoo.com

"... A weekly, statistical correlation analysis between the commodity and the industry group from 1983 results in a correlation of -.13: essentially no correlation, which is quantifiable support of the anecdotal analysis.

3.The industry group appears to be more influenced by the overall equity market environment rather than the price of an underlying commodity. Examples are 1987, 1990, and 1998.

The Oil Service group may be influenced by many factors, but the underlying price of the commodity does not seem to be of critical, if of any, importance. ..."
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Crude Price and OSX are influenced by some common factors, and often move together. This doesn't mean they're 'Coupled' together. They are not.

Having incorrect notions of cause/effect and how factors influence each other leads to error. Like Granny used to say -- "It ain't so much the things you don't know, it's the things you know for sure That Ain't So that'll sneak up and whack you."

regards,

diana
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