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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (33117)11/5/1998 8:45:00 PM
From: John Carson  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
Does anybody know when tax selling season officially begins? It seems to be nonexistent right now. Who would tax sell in this type of market? I know I sat down last weekend and figured out how much I need to sell. I am now waiting for the right time to unload. Mid caps and small caps have taken a beating this year and there is still plenty of tax selling to do. Even Dow 30 stocks have taken some nice hits. When all these people see that Dow 9200 or so will not bring their dogs back to life they will sell. This will trigger other selling and we have ourselves the same tax selling season as last year, only this time shortened two months by Mr. Greenspan. Everyone will exit the door at once and we will have the beginning of "another bear market." IMHO the market will continue to a double top of 9200-9300 by November 17, Greenspan will be staring Dow 9300 in the face and will have to cut interest rates to justify his panic cut in mid October. How ironic that Greenspan et al. considered tightening at 7000 and now have to cut at 9300. There may even be a slim chance that Greenspan will not want to continue fueling the bubble on November 17, so he will wait until until December. He does that and the impatient market may tank. If he cuts in November, Dow may go to 9500, but tax selling will eventually come into play. Either way there is not much chance the market will sustain these levels, especially at this time of year.
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