I'm with you. Toy is the thread's biggest asset ...
he's just trying to encourage the thread to make more money by investing in faster growing companies. Some excerpts from ...
forbes.com
HOW MICROSOFT COULD BLOW IT
By Rich Karlgaard, Publisher
publisher@forbes.com
... forget the DOJ. Microsoft's golden era of dazzling growth rates and frothy multiples is coming to an end, never to be repeated. The glory days are waning in Redmond, Washington. Enjoy them now, if you like Microsoft. Be patient, you Microsoft haters! Market forces will soon deliver what you've begged the DOJ for—only quicker and cleaner—and without establishing Luddite legal precedents (or worse, toxic, anticapitalist resentments) that would cripple America's world-beating information technology industry.
• Windows NT, version 5.0, was supposed to ship in June 1998. But Steve Ballmer (the No. 2 at Microsoft) has just revised that date to anywhere between June and October 1999. That means the release of NT 5.0 will be too close to the year 2000—and its attendant problems—to enjoy widescale adoption. Most corporate customers will wait until after Y2K to switch to NT 5.0.
• Networking and communications have never been Microsoft's strong suit. The company's ballyhooed bets on the new infrastructure paradigm—MSN and NT—have been slow to catch fire. Even more worrisome for NT: In the grand scheme of building a network, a particular operating system is not all that important. Those on the front lines of networking, such as the telcos, Internet service providers, competitive local exchange companies and wireless operators, still prefer time-tested Unix as the operating system for networks.
(Prediction: Cisco and Lucent may become the biggest threats to Microsoft over the next five years.)
• Thanks to the Internet, small niche companies can reach mass markets in a heartbeat. Consider Hotmail. Although it was later acquired by Microsoft, Hotmail grew very large, very quickly. It acquired 7 million users in its first year and is now up to 34 million. Bill Gates is no dummy, quickly grasping that Hotmail's fantastic growth was something he couldn't compete with. Microsoft simply could not catch up.
Had Microsoft not acquired Hotmail, it would have been beaten at that game. E-mail and other communications software naturally lend themselves to hypergrowth at large volume, says Steve Jurvetson, the venture capitalist who backed Hotmail. Such software is the future of computing; ergo, we can expect to see more ravenous little critters rising up to bite the giant.
• Microsoft is likely to see diminished revenue streams from sub-$1,000 computers. That's because cheap PCs—the fastest-growing computer segment—ship with cheap software. This trend could dam up sales for Microsoft Office, a $295 package that accounts for 40% of the company's revenue.
Microsoft's empyrean $280 billion market cap is unlikely to double. A flat stock price will trigger a downward spiral. The company will be forced to pay market-rate salaries for its vast army of high-I.Q. workers. Increased costs will hit earnings, which will snag the stock price, further dampening the morale of those 60-hour-a-week Gatesians who slave away for stock options. The lofty valuation even now threatens the company's recruiting. This is Gates' No. 1 worry. Microsoft's bright bulbs have always been the company's greatest asset. But now, the brightest new talent wants to join startups where growth potential is greater.
End of article.
Windows 2000 ... Software so bad not even Microsoft will release it?
That's very bad. |
