Calvary,
Your points are well taken. TCBG has no revenues let alone product on the shelves (looks like your source of info might be correct "unless" news on Friday). In addition, the current restricted shares, once set free, will serve as a major overhang on the market until digested.
The key to Wal-Mart, IMO, is not revenues. It is the endorsement of TCBG's pouch and built in straw system. For this endorsement to take hold, however, TCBG must demonstrate not only to investors - but its potential customers, that it can produce and deliver the pouch.
Actual product placement in Wal-Mart super stores, IMO, is best viewed as a market test. What are the sales? What is the customer response to the built in straw system? In short, will these pouches take hold in the market place or not? Are they successful?
TCBG is gearing up for greater production with the order of the new Volpak machines. If all goes according to plan, the products will be in Wal-Mart where potential customers can assess the package offering and render appropriate decisions to carry or not in a time frame where TCBG will be in a position to capitalize off any new customers/orders in a expedient manner.
The current valuation of TCBG stock, IMO,most likely has the stock overvalued. Part of this potential overvaluation, IMO, is due to the lack of information regarding the Company. There simply isn't any information let alone audited financials to valuate the stock/company. Who knows? The other part to any over valuation rests in TCBG being a "concept" stock.
TCBG is offering a "legal" stand up pouch with a "built in straw" system. The only way to "value" this concept is to assess it's "potential". Assessing potential is an "opinion" and "guessing" game. There is, however, Capri sun and Kraft to draw comparisions. Given that the market "knows" nothing about TCBG in regards to financials and worth - I'm of the opinion that the lack of finacial information is already reflected in the stock price. This than brings us to "concept valuation". The market suggests a price of 80 cents or so "as is". The question is wha t"will" the market think once the product is produced, delivered, and placed on the shelves? And if produced, placed, and sold - what "will" potential customers decide?
The risk is TCBG being unable to deliver the product on time if at all.
As always, do your own D&D. Rely upon your own research and opinions. As for me, FALL doesn't officially end til December 21, 1998.
KSully |
