DJ,
Thank you for keeping us updated wrt news on MU. I want to point out that there is a significantly bullish tint to the stories you reproduce, in my belief, and often inconsistent with reality of the DRAM market. It is the perennial half empty / half full argument Here is one instance:
September chip sales increase strongest in eight years, says SIA
SAN JOSE -- More good news for the battered semiconductor industry. Chip sales grew 4.2% in September to $10.23 billion compared to $9.82 billion in August, according to the latest Global Sale Report released today by the Semiconductor Industry Association here.
Clearly, sales in september were down 13.5 percent in a year over year comparison, which is typically the norm for comparisons. The DRAM market is apparently still shrinking on a real basis. What has been apparent listening to SIA and DRAM industry execs the last three years is that they try to put a positive spin on any data. I have seen past instances where year over year numbers have shown positive growth (while sequential numbers have not) and you can be sure that they would not even mention sequential numbers. If at all they do, you can be sure that it would be buried at the bottom. In this case, it is the year over year numbers that have suffered this fate.
I am a long term micron bull, but I have learned over the years that it is best to discount some of these statements from SIA and industry execs (as well as analysts) as desperate attempts to substantiate a belief (and often a delusion) that might not have a basis in reality.
And I am sure skeeter is grinning as he reads this (G).
Best Regards,
Sridhar |
