Elwood: I don't buy into the theories that CPQ is being boycotted because MM are mad at Mason and co. or because Dell is more popular. Buyer buy if there is money to be made.
There is one matrix reason - the merger with DEC. The conventional wisdom in WS based on substantial supportive experience, is that mergers often do not work, or they work only partially, they are more costly than anticipated and they take longer to be accretive. Conventional wisdom would counsel a "wait and see" attitude.
Against that, is the information being put out that this merger was less costly than it appears, well planned, has executed perfectly and will be accretive in the 4th Quarter, as planned.
There are those in the market, who decided to buy early to be positioned for results of the merger, and there are those, espescially the big institutions, who will buy only when it is in the mid $20's. Otherwise, they will wait until the results of the merger are confirmed and a rising trend in earnings is established.
Whichever camp one is in, fish or cut bait time is approaching. Most of the first upward leg might come before earnings as the institutions become more confident of the result. I originally thoguht the third week of November would see the big push up, and still think that is a good mark to use.
Victor |
