Dean-
Actually, I have no proof or an upcoming announcement, nor am I actually trying to predict the same. However, I have believed that NM will be acquired for several months, even before the stock tanked again and again and again.
At current prices, the stock is an unbelievable bargain for a potential bidder. The company has sales of at least $15 per share. Considering that the recent problems were only a blip on the screen, and not a permanent problem, even $15 per share is a good price for an acquiring company to pay.
There have been some very large block purchases recently (several hundred thousand shares) that were not institutional purchases. That means that the buyer is likely a larger company which is buying up the company. The reason Friday should have been important is that the SC13D filing with the SEC would have been due that day, assuming that the buyer exceeded 5% ownership of the outstanding stock of NM. It turns out that it did not. Shortly after the stock dropped to 5.125 a few weeks ago, more of the same buying occurred. If this is enough to push the buyer past 5%, it would have to file a 13D.
When the filing is completed and becomes public, everyone will be able to read it and draw their own conclusions. I expect an announcement the same day (probably after the bell) because the bidding entity will want to give their explanation and proposal to buy the company at the same time. If and when this happens, I would be surprised if the price of acuisition is less than $15. I believe that even if this scenario does not play out, NM is still a good buy at this level. I already bought more 3 times, tripling my # of shares since October.
Do what you wish, but I felt that I should communicate the likelihood/potential for a near-term takeover, so that everyone can enjoy the ride upwards.
-Todd |
