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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

ORCL 221.64

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To: John F. Dowd who wrote (8769)	11/6/1998 11:57:00 AM
From: Michael Olin	Read Replies (1) of 19080

Where do you think ORCL will go if Microsoft decides that a Relational Database (which at one time they sold as SQL Server) should be "integrated" into Windows 2001 because it gives the customer a consistent "user experience" and provides some additional benefits not found in an operating system that lacks "database management capabilities"? How many of the 4 or 5 vendors selling speech recognition solutions do you think will still be in that business once Microsoft (as they've already said they will) includes that functionality in the OS? Is it your view that Microsoft can "integrate" anything they want into their operating system and give it away for free? As someone who makes his living working almost exclusively with Oracle's products, the first scenario (DB is part of the OS), however unlikely it may seem, is the most frightening. If IBM and Dragon and others get pushed out of the speech recognition business, perhaps there is a more general harm done to the industry, society, etc. My immediate concern is more parochial. Should I consider a Microsoft victory in the DOJ case to be a validation of the view that the OS is what we (MS) say it is, and a potential threat to my livelihood (assuming I cannot modify my skill set!)? Should I think that an AT&T-style breakup of MS into an OS company and an applications company is in my personal best interests? If that were to happen, should Oracle be allowed to incorporate traditional OS functions such as file management into their database product (O8i/iFS)? Does it matter if they offer the iFS functionality as an extra cost option rather than give it away? Are the rules different for Oracle because they do not have a monopoly on database management systems (or would I be better off if they did)? Feel free to flame me for whatever political beliefs you feel this post is evidence of. I just want to point out that the potential outcomes of this case are far more nuanced than what is being hyped. Regardless of how the case is resolved, it will make the rules of the game more clear, and everyone in the industry is going to have to rethink how they want to play it. -Michael

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