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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 235.13

+2.2%

Nov 10 3:59 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (26036)	11/6/1998 5:57:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Gottfried, Tito and All, Today we broke a Dorsey Wright double top of $36 when we reached $37. Again, the DW Statistical Probability is 80.3% that in 11.5 months AMAT will have gained 38.7% based on todays data. I was surprised that we did not pull back further than we did this last downturn before reversing up from $33 to $36 and then today $37. Tito, it now looks that we have a good confirmation on your yo-yo affect. Where do you see us topping during this next bull, $40, before reversing slightly? That would give us a pole of 7 "x" boxes ($7.00) up from $33 and then carry us into December and, IMO, the big thrust January thru August 99 to $101+. Remember, IMO, DW relative short term projection, 6 months, is $64 from the DW $22 low. With this rapid rise short seller should be very careful as many learned in 1996 upcycle. Just my $.02. Paul V.

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