I think Consumers should demand that the Industry clean up their act and rationalize the Standards . Once this is done, it will be feasible for Consumers to obtain better and cheaper services.
This is happening. At least UUNet said they've announced a meeting to discuss the crisis as you've just described it. Over 300 representatives have said they'd attend. They're vendor neutral, but want a standard.
Notes from James McManus' presentation:
Capacity growth 1995 to 1998:
1995:
* DS3 + T1 Core
* Aggregate backbone capacity < 0.4GBps
1998:
* OC-48c + OC-12 Core
* Expected year-end capacity > 400 GBps
Capacity growth factor:
* More than 1000 times in 3 years
Port Count
* Aggregate port count in 1998 approx. 900,000
* Includes modem ports, switch virtual-interfaces, and router (sub) interfaces
* Estimated service ports in 3 years: 50,000,000.
Random notes:
". . . not going to scrap infrastructure. Highspeed has to interface with ATM and IP. . . one card plug-in. . . all services from voice world go into IP environment. . . .
Internet growth dwarfs other models (Moore's Law). PCs aren't only devices using the net (eating bandwidth). Internet Law: traffic doubling every 3.6 months. Ten times a year.
Only real problem is scaling.
Switching --- required technology doesn't exist yet.
Servers --- difficult to scale and maintain.
If you're not scared, you don't understand.
Technology building blocks: better fiber, better DWDM, optical switches, caching improvements, broadband access.
Voice is growing 4 - 8 % a year; Internet growing 1000%. By 2004 99% will be Internet, 1% voice.
DSL suffering from critical mass. . . extremely promising. . . will be important option for business. . . cable viable option for consumer. . .
Corporate network side: dial VPNs work; branch VPNs are slow developing. . . E-VPN --- enterprise VPNs --- connect branches, by yr 2000 suppliers on extranets, allow companies to re-engineer business processes. . . then move branch VPNs away and onto IP. Evolution to IP is unstoppable. Growth won't slow any time soon. . . ."
The growth statistics are staggering. And when you stand back and look at the standards issue and realize the power of the imbedded carriers versus networkers like Cisco, you have to wonder if there'll ever be concensus. Incidentally, the IETF makes decisions by concensus, not vote.
Later --
Pat |
