<<<AMZN's much publicized growth will probably slow significantly>>
I figure AMZN is good for revenues of $600M this year and $1.2 billion next. You've got conservative (Forrester Research) estimates the US (not counting Europe) internet commerce will roughly double annually (to $40B in 1999, $100B in 2000, $180B in 2001 and $340B in 2002). I call these conservative because other estimates are more aggressive.
In addition to overall internet growth, you've got AMZN adding a new e-commerce market sector every four months. There is also geographic expansion yet to be scaled up. Not to mention the economies of scale which come with adding markets.
Last weekend my wife and I did *all* our Christmas shopping in about one hour. On the internet. That's 16 nephews and nieces, and various adults. Several places, including, of course, AMZN. I am beginning to see bricks and mortar stores as doomed anachronisms. I know my family is ahead of the rest of the population, but there are many more like us are coming.
AMZN will certainly have competition. But they don't need to dominate any market. They just need to be a major player in several markets.
I have read many dire posts about BKS on this thread 6 to 9 months ago, that were proven to be wishful thinking from bears. After a while, they just seem tiresome to me. So, round 2 will give AMZN more competiton than round 1. AMZN will also be stronger for round 2.
Given the deep pockets behind AMZN, their connections in the KP keiretsu, insiders like L. John Doerr plopping down $7M+ to buy more shares in July, and the Junglee/Planetall angle which has not yet blossomed, I choose to hold. While I have 8X profits on my money so far, I see another doubling or two over five years.
As a final note, I really wish that bears would not refer to AMZN bulls on this thread in such disrespectful ways. I am aware that many are angry that the stock is not doing what fundamental analysis would predict. But the bulls on this thread are not responsible for this. I just don't think the disrespect belongs in a forum where we are all sharing ideas and trying to reconcile differences. Twice in the past year I have left this thread in anger because of this problem. I am drawn back by classy people like Glenn, who have a different view from me, and who have much to teach me, without belittling me.
JMHO,
Tom |
