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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis - Beginners
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To: David Russell Coburn II who wrote (1838)1/8/1997 10:15:00 PM
From: David Russell Coburn II   of 12039
 
To all,

to date = DRC Test Series posts 1815,1838,1853

This is the 2nd trading day post of what will be 9 posts for my first TA paper trading test. The ongoing results are as follows.

1. -1.00$ / -7.77% / OBV decreasing / 5 above 13 converging
2. 0.00$ / 0.00% / OBV flat / 5 above 13 constant
3. -0.25$ / -1.47% / OBV decreasing / 5 above 13 converging
4. +1.00$ / +4.82% / OBC slightly increasing / 5 above 13 diverging
5. 0.00$ / 0.00% / OBC slightly increasing / 5 above 13 flat
6. -0.50$ / -1.67% / OBC slightly decreasing / 5 above 13 flat
7. +0.75$ / +3.1% / OBC increasing / 5 above 13 diverging

Notes:

1. All of the chosen equities had already made one or two days positive move when they were chosen. I would like some suggestions on methods used by the pros on how to get in AT LEAST 1 day earlier.

2. This is the first day that I have utilized the OBV indicator and it seems that there is a definite correllation(sp) with continued price increase and positive OBV slope. From looking at historical data it also seems that this may be a good indicator for getting in a little earlier. Comments on this please.

3. I know that Dave says "in his most basic formula" to get out of a stock, watch for the 5MA decreasing below the 13MA. My humble question is, on #1 "stock" above I would like to sell because:

a. It has already lost 7% even though my stop is at 10%
b. The OBV has turned slightly negative
c. 5 is closing with 13

What is the consensus opinon on this. I know it is my decision but I'm looking for input as to why I should close or keep it open.

4. I've also discovered a flaw in my original selections in that most of them have very low average volumes. This probably invalidates the test to some degree but the two past days have been a real learning experience.

5. This is just an idea but it seems to me that if a stock was about to make a move through a resistance point there is a chance that there might be 1 or 2 days where the new buyers would be paying the ask to all the resistance. This implies "possibly" that in these one or two days the price would open and close about the same but total daily volume would go very high especially on a large float stock. Also the intraday price range of the stock might be very large. What are a few tests that would indicate a large daily traded volume, low change in the open and close price, and possibly large swings in the intraday pricing. It also seems that if this situation developed a person who realized it could play the lows against the highs of the day. I would not be comfortable doing this but it seems feasable. Some comments on the original idea would be appreciated. I am only trying to learn, please realize that I know very little about investing especially TA.

All comments are welcome. Both positive and negative.

As always thx:

DRC
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