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Non-Tech : Invest / LTD

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To: 007 who wrote (5164)	11/7/1998 8:47:00 AM
From: Thean	Read Replies (1) of 14427

James and Papaya - let me get one thing straight - I recognize the peril of a sharp drop here with all the overbought condition and the still unsound fundamentals with global economics. However, I just keep this piece of info in the back of my mind and not base my day to day strategy on it. When the tide turns, I will probably miss the turning point a little but this scenario is already structured into my holding (with hedging and some puts and sell stop on the unhedged long positions). No one knows when the turning point will be. DOW went up 1500 pts in the past 5 weeks - making it a 300 pt gain per week. If this continues for another 5 weeks, we will get DOW 9500 and by next January we shall see DOW 10000. Can anyone guarantee this will not happen? The chance of this happens is as good as DOW dropping 1500 point in the next 5 weeks. The greater probability is DOW trading between 8400 - 9100 until Christmas is over. Papaya - respect the mystery of the market. Stranger things always (not seldom) happen. Would you expect MU to be above $40 now? I say the chance of MU going to $60 in the next three months is as good as MU dropping to $20 with the greater probability of its trading in +/- $10 range. So how would you prepare for this scenario?

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