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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)

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To: steve who wrote (4736)	11/7/1998 12:43:00 PM
From: FMK	Read Replies (2) of 27311

Hi Steve, I spoke with an analyst who attended the AEA show last year. Here's a link to some notes I posted. exchange2000.com I believe the analyst attendance was a catalyst for the push to the high 9's last year. Then there was the failed license agreement with Sony when Cal reportedly implied that they couldn't be trusted with the formula. Cal's resignation then cost many of us. I had borrowed and leveraged heavily on margin to bring my number of shares up to over three times the value of my home. I then had to sell much of that on the way down at a loss. The final blow was a change in Schwab's margin requirements to $3.50 per share for any stock below $10. This created a surprise extra $60,000+ margin call after I had already sold in the and 7's and 6's and 5's and 4's to keep my equity percentage up and thought I was ok. I then had to sell more of my $9+ stock in the 4's to cover. The experience cost me nearly twice the value of my home. You might say that I have paid my dues and tuition, and have as much reason as anyone to be negative and bitter. Its a lesson in the risks of using margin. It sometimes has a way of forcing you to sell when it is the best time to be buying! What will analysts see and hear from Valence at the AEA this year? We know the Ireland plant has been ready to show analysts for a few weeks. I was told they would be impressed to the extreme. My intuition tells me that what visitors might see has recently been captured by a film crew, and will be shown at the AEA show. Will Valence again make impressive presentations only to have big deals fall through? Not this time. I again have all remaining available chips down and am hanging on. Even at the $7 level I believe it is a mistake to sell for a small profit. Last year we went to $10 around the time of the AEA show. This year we have volumes of far-superior mass-produced batteries in inventory and in the hands of many potential customers. We have 525,000 recent yes votes by insiders that were absent last year. We also have substantial hiring of production staff, public statements that production has been underway and approval of the manganese oxide and other patents (207 total) that will make it tough on the competition. My posts projecting production numbers and resulting product value may help explain why I have remained so positive. I was always convinced that Valence would succeed. My only regret is having learned about it and getting involved too soon. IMO our patience is about to rewarded in no small way and we should resist the temptation to think small and sell for a dollar or two profit when institutions are now accumulating in preparation for the 20's and 30's.

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