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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 301.11+6.9%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST
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To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (26050)11/7/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: Gary Burton  Read Replies (3) of 70976
 
This of the FWIW variety----1) The % of stocks now above their 40dma peaked at 82.7% on Nov 5 (it downticked on Fri). Only twice before since 1986-87 has the % been higher (94% in Feb91 and 88.8% in June 97) -----2) On the 8 other occasions where such % peaked out, the DJIA peaked out a minimum of 50 calendar days to a maximum of 361cd later (avg 125cd excluding the one example of 361). In other words the DJ has never peaked out right on the %>40dma peak--suggesting we have to at least Xmas before we see a peak in the DJ assuming the %>40dma stat peaked out last Thursday. The average % gain for the DJ after the peak in the %>40dma peak was 8.3% and ranged from 2.1% to 15.4% (excl the one time aberation of 29% in the precrash 87 period). So, reaching the 9700 area would be in keeping with historical trends. Lo and behold, the Advanced GET trading software is currently suggesting the next peak to be in the 9700 area based on the momentum of prior waves. As i said-fwiw- and no doubt many of us will react to the data to suit our own particular slant. But, as one sceptic, I must admit to being influenced by the prior examples that suggest the DJ has never peaked out from here and needs to go to year end as a min. So a new high is prob in the cards.
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