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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 114.54

-2.3%

1:54 PM EST

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To: Dorine Essey who wrote (76665)	11/7/1998 6:07:00 PM
From: Craig Lieberman	Read Replies (3) of 176387

Dell also said the company would continue to focus its resources on production of PCs in the next few years to further boost its global PC sales share from the current nine percent. "A 20 or 25 percent (market share) is probably about as much as we can have as a company in the next five years, without going to radically different fields," he added. 25% market share is 2.7 times their current revenue. What if it takes them 5 to 10 years to get there? Won't there also be tremendous growth in the markets themselves. So they will be taking a larger piece of a bigger market. Lets see: Currently ~17 Billion is 9% of market... Whole market is therefore $180B market. Forcasted growth at 10%-15% for 5 years. (lets average at 12%) Year Revenue DELL mk DELL PC ind. share revenue 2000 201B 10% 20B 2001 225B 12% 27B 2002 252B 14% 35B 2003 283B 16% 45B 2004 317B 18% 57B 2005 355B 20% 71B 2007 397B 22% 87B 2008 445B 24% 106B 2009 500B 25% 125B 10 years from now, DELL revenue could be $125 Billion. Assuming, (and that assumes a lot...) that the ration of stock price to revenue remains the same, The company is 7.35 times the size it is today. So lets take the stock price of $65/share and multiply it by 7.35. Fair? Stock price in 2009 $477/share. Just trying to do the numbers... Can somebody tell me how to translate these kinds of revenue numbers into Earnings estimates? Craig

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