Ampex Corporation (AEXCA) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ampex Corporation (AEXCA)

AMPX 11.51

+5.9%

Dec 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: Hal Campbell who wrote (3763)	11/7/1998 7:19:00 PM
From: Hal Campbell	Read Replies (1) of 17679

WARNING - PERSONAL TAKE ON AXC. No sites or special sight. To me, the dual dangers here are cash flow and timing. As they wait for demand to finally come their way, the simple arithmetic of cash flow problems squeezes their time and options. AXC had opportunities to buy revenue growth at a bargain price and expect the growth to reach a point ( and beyond in time) where it could service their debt while demand for massive storage finally came to them. They did not choose to go that way. With the decline in sales and margins ...for now anyway .....I do not see how they can safely spend that 44 million - they may have to simply give it back. And they will need the 17 million in actual cash to buffer operating losses,pay Imagio, and attempt to jumpstart MicroNet ( and perhaps pay off its creditors). It would be nice for them to be first to the web hosting marketplace with the best tech - but they have to proceed cautiously. I am not sure why they cannot simply start their own web hosting company - but I guess the time required to develop a clientele from scratch would be prohibitive. I hope Imagio and Cooper et al can come up with something to halt the shrinkage in this companies core revenues. Hope those positive contacts Bramson spoke of turn into real revenue growth. I have cut loose my 3 clear losers decisively in the past ( on rallies) and had been glad in every case that I did. But I got hooked on this stock to a much greater degree. Don't know if its some need to validate my inner child, or simple goatheadedness, or the rounder in me coming out again, or just being stuck in a misplaced and mistimed leap of faith, but I am reluctant as hell to sell this stock. Keep thinking they have to finally succeed at something ...and it won't take all that much success for the stock to rise briskly from these levels. But with debt high and cash flow sinking ....these are dangerous waters for the next few years. I am holding, but telling those few that still ask me about it to stay away. A gamble indeed. Hope time tells a different tale for AXC over the next few years than it has in the last few. The same old story would only go 9 chapters.

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