Todd, no new news on SGL.
The Cytec sale could yield interesting news for the carbon fiber industry. There are very strong rumors out in industry regarding Monsanto cooperating with some Japanese company (most likely Mitsubishi or Toray - Monsanto has relationships with both) on heavy tow carbon fiber. I fully expect Cytec to follow. The problem with the acrylic fiber industry is the fact that there is massive overcapacity in the market which is currently being sold at marginal cost into the Chinese market. At the same time, China is building acrylic factories, so the current acrylic fiber makers are looking for alternate markets. Courtalds has shown the way in heavy tow, while Toray, Toho and Mitsubishi Rayon are already players in small tow. A side note is that Cytec's acrylic technology is based on the same solvent/process as Hexcel's carbon precursor, while Monsanto matches Mitsubishi. Another tidbit is that Hexcel's precursor plant is less than a mile away from Monsanto's acrylic fiber plant in Decatur, Alabama. Don't know if any of this means anything, but IMO Monsanto and Cytec will not let Courtalds and Zoltek "own" the heavy tow precursor market to themselves.
Do you know of any links between Sterling and Hexcel, Toray, Toho, Mitsubishi or Amoco? Could help predict the next steps of the former Cytec. I expect things to start to fall together over the next 6 months. Zoltek should be looking to link up with one of the other carbon fiber guys or Cytec/Monsanto, otherwise I'm afraid they will not be able to keep up and compete.
My two cents.
Flyguy. |
