Gregor,
I don't which newspapers you're reading but that's not the sense I'm hearing about Newt here in the capitol.
Newt was forced to be something that he is not, a moderate. He was minority whip and quite the firebrand. For him to have to moderate his agenda in the face of a very adept White House strategy, as well as his own ethics problems, left him ineffective.
But most of all, he lacks the popular appeal to go head to head with the president, perhaps the greatest politician in our history (not a compliment).
I believe Livingston will be the next speaker as Republicans attempt to appeal to broader issues and "distance" themselves from their more extreme elements who seek to advocate issues of a narrow focus.
Other than that, I don't disagree that people wanted to see Newt go. I wanted to see his departure for over a year and a half. Don't dislike the guy or his message. However, I dislike his inability to appeal to the nation (or was he merely a victim of media bias?.. :0).
Btw, there was no $80 billion surplus. You forget that Social Security is being tallied in the general budget and an IOU thrown in to be paid for in the future. And had they cut taxes, what would that have achieved that lower rates aren't achieving now??
The problem is that we're loosening up the monetary purse strings in an environment of deflationary pressures overseas and high indebtedness. A tax cut would have added little.
The only fuel being added is liquidity to an already over-priced US stock market. Emerging markets will likely continue to suffer until investors are convinced to move money back overseas. However, Y2K concerns are most serious for emerging markets in Asia as well as the established markets of Europe. I don't figure the smart will move long term into Asia until after 2000.
Right now, I still believe we're in a speculative bubble heading for retracement back to at least 6,000 Dow in 1999. When hedge fund investors get their opportunity to redeem in December, then we'll have a better view of the market topography.
Regards,
Ron |
