from "mastermind FYI" at yahoo; name aside, i have found this author's posts to be of high quality
On the fundemental side, remember the disk drive industry is not doing that great. QNTM hasn't made any money in months; it makes money selling tapes. WDC may be profitable in the second half of 99, if the whole hardware business dosn't go into a tail spin over Y2K (which it will). MXTR was spun off becuase its parent could't afford to keep paying the losses for 12 straight quarters and it need cahs not red ink. And SEG makes money at the high end and in software and sells disk drives which growing 15% as a sector, but has a 15% decline in gross selling price. Hence, gross revenue will be flat, flat, flat, flat!!!!
6. None of these companies (QNTM, WDC or SEG) can run up to 40 or 50 agian without starting to increase gross revenue. When SEG was selling for 40+, it was taking in over 2.4 billion in gross revenue: look at the following!!
Oct to Jan 96 = 2.4 billion (stock price 32 to 52)
Jan to Apr 97 = 2.5 billion (stock price 56 to 42)
Apr to Jul 97 = 2.0 billion (stock price 53 to 32)
Jul to Oct 97 = 1.9 billion (stock price 46 to 25)
Oct to Jan 98 = 1.7 billion (stock price 29 to 18)
Jan to Apr 98 = 1.7 billion (stock price 29 to 19
Jul to Oct 98 = 1.5 billion (stock price 19 to 31)
CONCLUSION:
Even with better margins, SEG has to start making more than 1.7 billion in gross to justify a stock price above 32. Further, with conditions bascially flat (15% groth and 15% price declines) and SEG's market share being challenged by MXTR and FIJTSU, I just dont see how gross is going to go up all that much, and then stay there for any lenth of time. The days of 2.5 billion in gross por quarter are gone for as long as the eye can see. You can upgrade all you want, but SEG pulled in 1.55 billion last quarter --->
DO YOU REALLY THINK IT'S GOING TO PULL IN MORE THAN 1.65 NEXT!!!
Good Luck to the new longs
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