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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology - Fundamentals
STX 287.93-2.1%Nov 11 3:59 PM EST
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To: CPAMarty who wrote (9)11/8/1998 5:13:00 PM
From: Carl R.  Read Replies (2) of 1989
 
I note that "mastermind FYI" repeats the argument that Y2K will decrease hardware spending. I have heard this before, but I think it is backwards. I believe that over the last couple of years businesses have already diverted IT spending to software from hardware. Costs and timetables for software are less well defined than hardware, so you must start early. I believe that business has deferred replacing older computers etc until 1999 knowing that hardware only gets cheaper and faster, and that it can be replaced quickly without trouble. I believe that most businesses will now go on a buying binge replacing older units with the plan of having their older cpus off line by 9/9/99, the first date that is likely to cause problems. Furthermore I expect consumers to replace older units as well, not knowing what troubles are in store for them, and not having a clue if the problems are serious. Thus I believe that sales for the next 9 months should accelerate to a record setting level.

Note that because I expect so many older units to be replaced, I wouldn't be surprised to see a yo-yo effect after 2000 as the replacement market dries up and sales plummet.

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

Carl
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