SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up?
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: fut_trade who wrote (1580)11/9/1998 2:23:00 AM
From: JBL  Read Replies (2) of 3902
 
Japan is nowhere close to a bottom.

People in the US fail to understand that Japan's crisis is systemic and that it will take years to be sorted out. Talking about a recovery in Japan is similar to expecting a turnaround in the US in February 1930.

Real estate has come down 70 % since 1990, but it is still 4 times as expensive as the most expensive market in the world : London.

Think about it, month after month after month, Japanese banks, companies and households see their balance sheet worsening due to falling asset values.

This country is in a deflationary spiral that has just started to accelerate, and no ammount of stimulus from the gvt can counter declining consumption by households, declining capex and mounting losses for companies.

Only when banks stop subsidizing money losing operations will Japan be ready for a rebound. This will not happen until they crash in a wall.

Remember how all these smart analysts predicted multiple bottoms in the smaller Asian economies last year ? They are doing the same mistake all over again, because they fail to understand the spiraling nature of the phenomenon that Japan is confronted with.

Japan is incapable of a fast turnaround / restructuring. Leadership is not exactly a trait that is encouraged in the Japanese culture, and only when their back is to the Wall is any type of controversial action taken.

I have no idea where the bottom is for Japan. I just know it's not now.

Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News