Some heartwarming viewing and reading today as 'SI' gurus get up in the morning to see sme of the indexes being down quite a bit, back in Oct of 97 I called this as chirping on bearish threads people who wait and wait and wait for markets to fall and when the crack comesw they are not even able to trade on the side they have been waiting and writing all along, being wrong for a bull is less of a pain he has his investments which recovers as markets backs up on short side the pain is higher for two reasons one is that they end up as known choose and pick chart readers and second it is clear also that if they had any investment the put premiums disappear like thief in the night with decreased volatility.. their shops will remain open they have never ever understood the phenomenon what is known as compounding for them to rate a company potential is to rate a company on basis of P/E for one or two years totally disregarding the perpetuity potential of a company it is like capitialising returns of a person's income for only first few years of his life disregarding the potetial of growth...it is this compounding affect better expained by Warren Buffet which I think derives the market..
Today certain interpretation would be return of old choppiness but I had written this five days back that HSI is hitting its first resistance and I wil be out of my ASEAN indexes and Phillipine long distance, now it does nottake a rocket scientest to guess that ASEA without hedge fund huge leverage cannot be shakened, even controls of Malayasia are about to be taken out.. a very clear signal emanated nearly five days back as indexes approached resistances, so today retracement is a normal retracement after a very solid run..
I will be thinking that market consolidates at every stage and I am firm believer of this consolidation and moving forward approach I tthink that on break of 1830 on composite to buy 1020 puts for Dec can be very iinteresting trade, I know I will see my levels back , the approach has to be a little more biased on the short side expecting market to be retreating as 9000 is approached lot of profits will be taken off the table may be 1155 area as we move forward the market will trade between 8300 and 9200 level, I would expect that this will happpen as our secondry indexes start faltering or retreating but in my opinion I feel a good possibility is that we may see consolidation in DOW and composite and RUT aong with other idexes may still show some good movement -- towards 200 days \MA we are well below on 200 days on RUT and the market may take a breather unless this RUT takes out 200 days so I am loking for this divergence as broad market strength reinforces the huge move of nifties .. as far as the buys from pundits and gurus is concerned I have seen them missing the train earlier and still remain in bussines for me it is nice to catch the train and ride it I don't buy puts at 1320 or 860's and I don't sell calls at that level right now for trading purposes establishing a nest of puts from my profits pending some money on iinsurance but for me collecting insurance premium is still not a pprefered option I would make more as market moves forward after some consolidation...this is upteenth time during this bull run that a bounce of 200 days MA has been missed or sacrificed on altar of eexotic non existant unsceintefic voodoist chartism rule of KISS reigns supreme in markets adopt it or perish this is what market is like, exotic traders are part times guys who need to work -- clear headed KISS traders live on markets... one of these days the fluke is going to be right, a couple of hundred points of retracemnt, the flock of bystanders goes down with them and what different does it make to them anyway, nothing as if nothing has hapened as market moved up 1500 points or 550 on composite.. Mr Accompora stil has a jod or Mr Favors still gets 50 $ for his news letter but for me I treat these huys and their self styled disciples with slight humours as all of them are my 'bhumbo' subscribers-- they love it and I have sold more bhumbos (AT calls it the coil) than I have ever in my life in last 28 months from July 96 to Nov 9 th bhumbo selling has been fun..without these self styled pompous gurus the life on wall street will be miserable nce to see INTC and MU at 97 and 44-- instead of 45 and 5 -- yes sell all |INTC MU below 89 and 39- and get out of chips if it happens only to enter later at 225.... selling at peaks is a fun not to be a part of market is self induced pain.. ggggggggggg |
