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To Anthony: Actually, as I have tried to say elsewhere, my primary point was to take the 66 cents as the most realistic base from which to project future earnings per share. That of course is dangerous and potentially misleading. Nevertheless I thought that it does bring a degree of realism into the numbers. The number for the Sept "98 quarter that was being used in reporting missed the point that this was not the "ongoing number", i.e. the earnings which exclude a negative adjustment for the LEAP spinoff. Therefore any estimate for the Dec '98 quarter or the FY99 through Sept "99, needs to start from 66 cents as the base if all remained equal - which of course it will not. :-) It just seemed to me that the Q has had very erratic earnings to date due to many many factors have made the "history" a difficult and IMO useless "base" for forward projections. And among other things, it seemed to me that at long last the Q was entering a phase where earnings were likely to be a bit smoother than in the past. Hence my "rule of thumb" attempt to suggest 4 times 66 cents or $2.64 as a ballpark estimate for the 12 months forward - the fiscal year 99 - thru Sept "99. The joke is that no sooner did I try this approach than the Microsoft / Q joint venture reared its head, making and "smoothness" moot. Fun. We now have Gregg's estimate of a range from $2.50 to $2.70 which he explains carefully and clearly is reasonable as a conservative estimate which the company itself did not disagree with. Therefore to me that is the most useful base from which to work right now. Yes I think personally it is quite conservative, but especially since we now have the joint venture in the picture, that in itself will make ongoing projections very very difficult. As for me, I will wait and see. And, of course, hold - as has been, is, and will be my approach - unless and until I see a major deterioration in the Q's fundamentals. Chaz |
