And More..FT..Nov 9 re Japan
JAPAN: Shadow shogun edges into the limelight
The real power in Tokyo is a man who has spent most of his obscure career in local politics. Michiyo Nakamoto explains
In the absence of strong leadership from Keizo Obu chi, the prime minister, the Japanese government has often seemed like an aircraft on automatic pilot heading inexorably towards a collision.
But as Mr Obuchi spends his time posing for the cameras with Takahonaha, the sumo champion, or talking to Chiaki Mukai, the Japanese astronaut aboard the space shuttle, a relatively unknown but increasingly influential power-broker in the ruling Liberal Democratic party is working feverishly to steer the Obuchi government back to on a more stable path.
Hiromu Nonaka, chief cabinet secretary, is the shadow shogun most widely credited with running the Japanese government these days.
"People openly refer to the Nonaka cabinet. Mr Obuchi's lack of leadership means that Mr Nonaka has no choice but to make the decisions himself," says Takayoshi Miyagawa, president of the Centre for Political Public Relations, a private think-tank.
It is to Mr Nonaka, 72, that the country's top bureaucrats and party members go when they want to influence government policy or seek advice on how to deal with the opposition. Even Mr Obuchi is reported to tell LDP officials and bureaucrats to refer important decisions to Mr Nonaka, encouraging what has been called the "Nonaka pilgrimage".
When the LDP, which does not have a majority in the Diet's upper house, was mired in a long and heated debate with the opposition Democratic party over the financial reform bills aimed at creating a framework for stabilising the financial sector, it was Mr Nonaka who made the final decision to accept the Democratic party's demands wholesale and get the bills passed.
Similarly, when the LDP faced strong resistance from the Democrats over plans to inject public money into undercapitalised banks, Mr Nonaka was behind the LDP's quick change in tactics that led to deals with the opposition Komei party and the Liberal party and the passing of legislation authorising the use of ¥25,000bn ($210bn) in public funds to recapitalise banks.
Japanese politics has long been characterised by backroom wheeling and dealing. But the concentration of power in a man who is nothing more than the government's chief spokesman is unprecedented. "This is the first time such a situation has existed since the war," Mr Miyagawa says.
How was an obscure politician who is a relative newcomer to the LDP - having won his first parliamentary seat just 15 years ago at the age of 57 - able to exert so much influence in a party that still values seniority and rank over ability?
It stems in large part from
Mr Obuchi's lack of leader ship and the upper house election defeat which discredited many key LDP leaders.
Opposition parliamentarians have complained that earlier in their negotiations with the LDP, particularly during the debate on the financial reform bills, they could not figure out who was making the decisions in the LDP. The consensus since then seems increasingly that it is Mr Nonaka.
However, the rise of Mr Nonaka, who spent most of his political career in the political backwater of the Kyoto municipal and regional governments, owes as much to his own experience in politics and the critical situation the LDP finds itself in amid a deepening recession, analysts say.
A wily politician with a combative spirit who is capable of making difficult decisions, Mr Nonaka is also known as a man of sensitivity and a strong sense of duty. His experience during the war watching Korean residents in Japan being forced into hard labour laid the foundations for a personal crusade to improve Japan's relations with not only South Korea but North Korea too.
These traits have won him the respect of leading LDP politicians, such as Koichi Kato, his former boss as secretary-general of the LDP, who is considered a sure contender to become prime minister one day. Mr Kato once said the best thing that happened to him in his job as secretary-general was to get to know Mr Nonaka, then his deputy.
But Mr Nonaka's power stems at least as much from his ability to understand what the public wants from its political leaders.
"The LDP must carry out very unpopular policies, such as the injection of public money into banks. Mr Nonaka is one of the few conservative politicians who can explain to the public [the need to adopt those policies] in terms that they can understand," says Shigenori Okazaki, political analyst at Warburg Dillon Read in Tokyo.
In a show of solidarity with the small business owners he knows so well from his years in local government, Mr Nonaka lashed out against the "immorality" of bankers in the midst of heated public debate over whether to inject public funds into banks.
So far, his efforts have allowed the LDP to pass vital financial bills and avoid the worst pitfalls.
But Mr Nonaka's shadow-shogunate faces considerable hurdles ahead. For one thing, there is no guarantee that he will be able to maintain the loyalty of key LDP members. "He may become the proverbial nail that gets hammered in because it sticks out too much," says Mr Miyagawa.
The need for co-operation with opposition parties also makes it almost certain that next year's Diet session will be rocky. The Liberal party, for example, whose co-operation the LDP needs to pass legislation on new security arrangements with the US, is demanding that the government reduce the consumption tax from the current 5 per cent to 3 per cent - a move the LDP and finance ministry strongly oppose.
Analysts worry that his political skills and style are still unhoned on a national level. The turbulence Mr Nonaka faces ahead will doubtless test them to the limit.
Here's still another link:http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/qbfd82.htm
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