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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here

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To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (2296)	11/9/1998 10:19:00 AM
From: WTC	of 12823

Perhaps YG is keying on the wrong question -- "interest" in HSD. Some of the more sophisticated analyses I've seen in the past few months focus instead on consumer willingness to pay at varying price points. Those analyses seem to show that "interest with the wallet open" varies very elastically between the $30 to $70 per month price points. What difference does it make that family 'A' is "very interested" if they are willing to pay a maximum $30 premium for HSD and their only options all cost at least $50? A recent national study (Parks Associates, September 1998) of 1502 respondents suggests that major (i.e., >50%) substitution of analog dial-up likely occurs when HSD is offered in the sub-$30/month range. The "definitely" (would purchase)group drops from 17% at $40 to 7% at $60. The "likely" group (including definitely) starts up at 41% at $40 but drops to 15% at $60. How can any reasonable prediction of HSD uptake overlook the pricing? To be fair, perhaps it must be recognized that some pricing model is at least implicitly incorporated in an apparently price-less prediction of HSD uptake, like the one YG proposes.

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