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MB: I don't know if you have seen Fred Hickey's latest letter, but his theory is that trouble amongst the suppliers to the box makers will start showing up in a few weeks. As usual, everyone is overproducing (e.g., between INTC, AMD and others there will be about 33-34 million microprocessors produced in Q4, versus PC shipments of 27-30 million), but what is different this year is that, attempting to emulate DELL, the usual customers are no longer willing to be stuffed with inventory. Accordingly, component makers might have had a good October, but by the second half of November their business will slow way down, and December will be terrible. I bought some January puts on INTC on Friday to have some breathing room, but Decembers might work out fine. |
