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NEW YORK, Nov 9 New York, November 09, 1998 -- Moody's Investors Service assigned a Ba1 initial rating to the medium and long term local-currency denominated bonds issued by the Republic of Guatemala
The rating reflects conservative fiscal policies that have resulted in moderate central government deficits 1% to 2% of GDP during the last five years and a manageable debt burden, as reflected by a domestic debt-to-GDP ratio of 5%.
A low tax burden 8% of GDP during 1970-1997 has been a persistent structural problem in Guatemala.
A tax system characterized by a narrow base, and a weak tax administration has restricted the degree of fiscal maneuver. Since 1997, the government has made a concerted effort to increase tax revenues and to improve the time profile of its domestic debt.
Reforms to the tax code, and a committed effort to increase tax compliance, have resulted in the highest tax ratio in 18 years (9.4% of GDP).
In addition to that, debt management has been effective in extending the average maturity of local currency debt, and the government has earmarked 50% of an estimated $1.2 billion in privatization proceeds to pay off domestic debt during 1998 and 1999.
In the coming years, the government's commitment to increase spending in social programs and basic infrastructure will pose a challenge in the fiscal front.
The budgetary impact of higher government spending should be partly compensated by the financial support anticipated to come from the international community $1.8 billion over a four-year period. |