E! :
PSUN's been great, thanks! Like Duane, I only wish I had more...same old song.
***OT***
In the "OOPS" category, I submit the following to both you and Duane:
( I don't have a scanner so will have to give my typing fingers a workout--both of 'em<g>-- to reproduce an article which appeared in our local paper this morning and which was reprinted from The Wall Street Journal--by Steve Liesman)
Lots of oil goes AWOL, or maybe not, some say
Oil analyst Michael Rothman was crunching the global crude oil data in April, when he came across a big problem: His trusty numbers didn't add up.
A 14-year veteran of the oil statistics, Mr. Rothman of Merrill Lynch & Co. usually found a way to explain these things with a little massaging of the spreadsheet. But this time, the answer wasn't in the computer.
What Mr. Rothman and a host of other oil industry analysts had uncovered was that a veritable tidal wave of oil was missing--almost 300 million barrels of it.
No one knows where the oil is. Some think it could be floating at sea or stashed away in shadowy storage facilities. Others think the barrels are a statistical aberration, merely a large spreadsheet error. Regardless, just about everyone in the world oil industry is desperate to solve the case. Washington politicians, Saudi oil sheiks and New York traders are in on the hunt, trying to either prove the oil doesn't exist or find the missing barrels before they come crashing down on world markets.
Last week, an analyst in London using an old map said he may even have discovered the treasure scattered around the globe. "The missing oil is all too real," says Leo Drollas of the Centre of Global Energy Studies, "either moving toward consumers or in floating storage."
Any way you measure it, 300 million barrels is a lot of oil to lose. It would fill about 135 tankers.Trouble is, nobody has actually seen the stuff nor has anybody reported it missing. The official numbers just don't add up, and the discrepancy is bigger than anybody can ever remember.
Here's why: Month after month amid the current oil glut, world oil supply has been outstripping demand. That's why prices have been going down. (Wolf's editorial comment: Duh!) Usually, the extra oil shows up in official inventory figures. This time, inventories didn't swell near enough to soak up the exta crude.
What makes the missing barrels so important is sheer size, more than double the officially counted surplus. If the oil is found, markets could be in for a rough downhill run at a time when oil prices, in real terms, are already cheaper than they've been in a decade. Oil-producing countries, form Saudi Arabia to Venezuela to Russia, are reeling from the lost revenues. Companies are cutting back on exploration and writing down property values.
If this oil is sloshing around the world somewhere, crude oil prices could remain low for several years. That is, unless OPEC, scheduled to meet later this month, decides to cut back production far more drastically than it has done already. By way of example, the Saudis, the world's largest producers, would have to stop pumping oil entirely for 37 days to rid the world of the missing barrels.
On the other hand, if the oil isn't there and the data are bad, prices could climb fairly quickly. In fact, OPEC might actually have overdone its cutbacks and shortages could occur. "It means there is less oil available worldwide the consensus thought," says George Yates, chairman of the Independent Petroleum Association of America, an industry group that argues the missing oil is just a statistical anomaly.
The IPAA has focused its anger on the International Energy Association, the world's leading authority on petroleum statistics. Formed in response to the 1973 oil embargo to give consuming nations a better picture of supply and demand, theIEA has come under fire for consistently overstating supply. In response to outcries from small oil producers in his state, Senator Pete Domenici, a Republican from New Mexico, recently asked the U.S. General Accounting Office to examine how the IEA collects and processes its data.
But the IEA, which will release its latest figures today, and several petroleum analysts defend the numbers. While admitting theirs is an inexact science, and acknowledging possible revisions, the IEA says the missing oil is out there and just remains to be found. "We can't find too many places where the numbers could be wrong." says David Knapp, editor of the IEA's monthly oil reports. With Asian economies in the doldrums, Mr. Knapp says it isn't likely that the demand numbers are the errant inputs.
--whew--
E! & Duane:
Since this "discrepancy" has been 'out there' since April, one would hope that it's existence has already been priced into the market, no?? (If not, my oil goose (still down 40% from acquisition prices) is truly cooked!)
Duane, is this little surplus a subject of much discussion in the Texas tea circles in which you undoubtedly move?
If this is 'old' news to you both, my apologies. If not, the apologies stand for being the bearer of potentially bad tidings vis-a-vis your drillers.
Regards,
Wolf (time to go hide in the den...again) |
