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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: larry who wrote (15241)11/9/1998 9:05:00 PM
From: RockyBalboa  Read Replies (2) of 18691
 
Larry and others,

there is one thing which disturbs me in the ongoing discussion.
Why does a successful short opportunity need a declining market?

Sure the short possibilities are harder to find now and rarely offered but there are some.

There had been times that grossly overvalued stocks unfolded within an otherwise skyrocketing or at least slight bullish market. Consider the long list of UFEM,SEXI,ITEX,ZITL or better Cendant, JP Morgan, the Dreyfus saga. All stocks which lost between 30% and 50% during a bull market. Bill Wexler means, it was safer to stay on the sidelines. I and many of you do not think so, indeed. But how to carry on?

I simply try to avoid dull situations as the only outcome is that a stock can get deerer then. But I had 4 nice shorts the last days and one ugly, eating up a third of the profits, ok. Now I'm eyeing SEEC and later GBIX as short term short play, after tomorrow.

The occassions were not unknown (AND, GERN, SNIC ...) and I simply avoid shorting stocks which are high priced but took those with a dying momentum for some 20, 30% gains. Ugly gains, but who cares.

C.
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