Carlatagne,
Scratch that count in the last private post i wrote you... This one works better and avoids the problem of Cycle wave 1 not meeting the 20% retracement requirement, and is even closer to your preferred long term count. Would you review, criticize, and compare with your own preferred?
'66-'82 was a wave 4 supercycle correction
8/82-8/87- Cycle Wave 1 of Supercycle 5
8/87-5/88- Cycle Wave 2
5/88-10/89- Primary Wave 1 of Cycle Wave 3
10/89-10/90-Primary Wave 2
10/90-1/92- Primary Wave 3
1/92-10/92-Primary wave 4
10/92-1/94-Primary wave 5 [END OF CYCLE Wave 3]
1/94-12/94-Cycle Wave 4
12/94-5/96-Primary wave 1 of Cycle 5
5/96-7/96- Primary wave 2
7/96-1/97- Intmdt. 1 of Primary wave 3
1/97-4/97- Intmdt. 2
4/97-8/97- Intmdt. 3
8/97-11/97-Intmdt. 4
11/97-7/20/98-Intmdt. 5 [END OF Primary 3]
7/20/98-present- Primary 4
So when this primary 4 corrective ends, we'll have the grand finale up in a primary 5 starburst that will complete the 5th Cycle wave. Primary 1 of Cycle 5 was roughly 270 SPX points, so we could see something similar in the primary 5 rally (although it wouldn't be much larger than the month long rally we've just experienced, now would it? <g> This read solves the problems you had spotted in the prior long term count i submitted to the thread, that being I had the period from 7/96 to 1/97 labeled as Primary 3 of Cycle 5, which would mean it was shorter than both 1 & 5, a real no-no.
Unless you or someone else can find a flaw which has slipped by me, I will assume it is correct, and thus expect this Primary Wave 4 Correction we're in to complete before the end of December. I now have "A" of this primary 4 correction running from 7/20-9/10, and "B" running from 9/10-present, with a of B from 9/10-9/28, b of B from 9/28-10/9, and c of B from 10/9-present. Within this c of B, I have us in wave 4 of 5. wave 4 of 5 should complete tomorrow (with more downward action, then we have a 5 of 5 rally into the latter part of the week that could take us to the 1145-1155 area SPX (9000-9100 Dow).
After the completion of this rally, which will complete wave B of Primary 4, we will begin wave C of Primary 4, which can inflict alot of damage or not, depending on the fed, earnings warnings, worldwide equity markets, etc. A move back down to the October lows would seem well within reach.
This selloff should be followed by Primary 5 of Cycle Wave 5, a several month and very steep rally that could take the market back to the all time highs by the end of the first quarter next year. It should measure 2000+ Dow points if it equals its primary 1 counterpart. But a 5th wave failure/truncation should be watched for considering the state of our world. Once this 5th wave rally completes, then we're ready for the '29 style crash, and then some!!
Regards,
David |
