Stitch, can you set me straight on these observations and impressions?
1. You posted a humorous piece yesterday about an author with a hard drive so big he could never fill it.
2. I don't do video games with intense graphics, digital photography, store video on my pc, etc. Like most people I know, I surf the net, use some pretty standard spreadsheet, word processing, etc. My 2 gig hard drive of 4 years ago is still only 45% used without compression.
3. I almost never hear of people filling up their hard drives anymore.
4. Every time I turn around someone is announcing a larger, cheaper drive. Fujitsu up to nearly 20 gig at low prices...
5. I also constantly hear you engineers talk about developments which will allow the development curve to continue.
On the other hand:
1. I see no peak in the internet in foreseeable future.
2. We see announcements of other possible uses of dd such as the smarter type vcr's that capture favorite programs and can record even if the program is already in progress.
My observation is that it seems to me, for most users we are at saturation of resource on the desktop. No question there are power users that will have ever growing needs, but as we approach 100 gig on the desktop, more and more people just won't need it. The server end, on the other hand, needs continued technology improvements. Also, new types of applications which basically will cause a rethinking of the pc/tv as a different flavor of appliance will open up as development moves forward.
My question is: "Won't there be increasing polarity between the desktop and the high end?" The two development areas have fed each other to this point. Yesterday's high end is today's desktop. But as we overwhelm the need on the desktop, there will be less subsidy to develop the high end. And the super high-end redefining the pc as some sort of new appliance will require a quantum (no pun intended) leap. In other words, the economies of scale won't be there all at once. |
