CNSI Cambridge Neuroscience Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : CNSI Cambridge Neuroscience

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To: DD™ who wrote (61)	1/9/1997 1:59:00 PM
From: James Silverman	of 675

I wouldn't know Don. Long term I believe Cerestat will be replaced by NMDA antagonists with better side effect profiles. However, CNSI does appear to have a healthy lead for the time being. $50 assumes the drug is very successful. I believe the CNSI/BI deal is for CNSI to receive 25% royalties on sales. This would imply CNSI royalties of a couple $100 million dollars annually which may or may not be generous. A big question would be at what point after a stroke is cerestat effective. i.e. 1 hour, one day, 2 days. Say it is ineffective after a day, these projections would probably be very generous, as stroke victims often wait a day or so prior to hospitalization. It is safe to say CNSI stock would be a big winner when and if Cerestat is approved, however its market potential is still unclear. The trials are blinded so it should be some time before Cerestat's effectiveness is known. The trials need to be well defined. Particularly in terms of effectiveness, time frame of effectiveness and side effect profile. Any doubts on this and approval may be more difficult than expected.

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