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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis
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To: Electric who wrote (17653)11/10/1998 7:30:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson  Read Replies (2) of 42787
 
Favors:

Jerry Favors Analysis Tuesday November 10 8 pm
At the lows this morning the Dow was down as much as
43 points. If the Dow had broken 8845 on a print basis and
8813 intraday several of our cycle indicators would have
given sell signals. The Dow reached a print low of
8854.71,holding just above 8845. If the Dow breaks 8845 on a
print basis and more importantly 8813 intraday from here that
signal will still be given.
The Dow was up as much as 30 points,then reversed back
down in the last hour. We closed down 33.98 at 8863.98.
As we mentioned several of our cycle indicators are poised
to give sell signals if the Dow breaks 8845 on a print basis
and more importantly 8813 intraday. We got close today but
those key levels were not broken. A decline below 8854 on a
print basis tomorrow will signal a test of 8845 on a print
basis and more importantly 8813 intraday.A decline below
1127.50 in the Dec. S&P futures will signal a test and
probable decline below 8845 and 8813 intraday in the Dow. The
Dec. S&P futures closed at 1129 so it would not take much of
a decline to break 1127.50 tomorrow.
While we believe the odds favor lower prices the very
short term cycles suggest a short term low in this time frame
and then another brief rally before we really start down
hard.If 8845 on a print basis and 8813 intraday are broken
tomorrow we could easily see a sharper decline short term but
short term cycles suggest a short term low is likely soon and
then another rally.It is after that rally that we must
seriously consider going short.
We have made an exhaustive study of the probabilities of
significant profits if we go long for the low we expect short
term,but given the upside projections and resistance levels
we gave you earlier this week we are not convinced a long
position would yield profits significant enough to prove
worth the risk. In our opinion the Dow will remain in a
trading range for the balance of the year,probably holding
above 7400. If the Dow does not break 7400 this year any
decline below 7400 any day after the first trading day in
January will confirm a major Bear Market has begun. If this
were to occur it would be the first major sell signal of the
last 16 years.
For now any rally above 8929 on a print basis would give a
short term buy signal off the hourly charts. However for that
signal to remain valid the Dow must hold above 8845 on a
print basis.
We know many of you are anxious to take a new
position,long or short. However you must not allow your
emotions to determine your investment decisions.We will wait
until the indicators are absolutely clear one way or the
other,and then give you a new signal to buy or sell.
Sincerely,

Subscriber Services
InfoVision, Inc.
Fax: 970-484-4840
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