Seagate Technology - Fundamentals Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology - Fundamentals

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To: Yogi - Paul who wrote (82)	11/10/1998 9:53:00 PM
From: Pierre-X	Read Replies (2) of 1989

Re: End of the line for desktop capacity Your argument is persuasive. The killer apps of TODAY are indeed communications apps. Paul Z. Pilzer in his somewhat facetiously entitled book "God Wants You to be Rich" presents an interesting and compelling theory about the building fortunes shifting from manufacturing to distribution. Every day I see more evidence of the accuracy of that theory. However I have a two point rebuttal your zero desktop growth thesis: 1. There have always been skeptics of uses for advancing PC technology, all the way back to the days of the 80286, whose introduction was greeted by some naysayers who wondered what people would ever do with so much power on their desktop. 2. Travel forward into the future 3 years. Consider the PC of November, 2001. What operating system will people be running on it? What kinds of applications will people be using it for? What is the array of capabilities it will have? We can't know these things. But history has shown again and again that new applications and new, useful functionality does arrive to harness available power and capacity. But I would argue that underlying technology and applications demanding it dont develop in lockstep -- sometimes one outstrips the other, and it's clear that, right now, the technology has outstripped the applications. --- Of course, it -IS- very possible that you're right, and evolution on the desktop has come to an end. Frankly I can't envision the application that would create MASS MARKET demand for 20 GB HDDs. But if one doesn't materialize, some HDD makers are in deep deep doodoo. --- Your vision a bit like the concept of the NC. What's your take on that new NC company headed by the ex-Sybase chief?

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