REPORT / FORECAST - Crude, heat/oil build, gas draw in API
REUTER POLL FORECAST* ACTUAL FOR
FOR WEEK ENDED WEEK ENDED
-WEEK ENDED 11/06/98- -10/30/98-
------------------------------------------------
CRUDE............ UP 2.750 MLN 343.717 UP 7.987 MLN
DISTILLATE....... UP 1.125 MLN 146.815 DN 0.946 MLN
GASOLINE......... DN 1.100 MLN 200.464 UP 3.206 MLN
UTILIZATION...... UP 0.75 (PCT PT) 93.6 PCT UP 5.1 PCT PT
*NB - The forecast is derived by polling at least six market analysts
/ traders, omitting the high and low forecast and averaging.
NEW YORK, Nov 10 - A moderate build in crude stocks was seen for the
week ending Nov. 6, reflected by a small increase in refinery runs and
as imports continued to be relatively strong, traders and analysts
said on Tuesday.
Ahead of the weekly inventory report from the American Petroleum
Institute, the traders and analysts said they expected the increase to
be 2.75 million barrels, much smaller than recent stockbuilds.
"API still has a lot of catching up to do with the DOE," said a New
York oil trader. He was referring to divergence in the data reported
by the Washington based industry group and that of the U.S. Department
of Energy.
For example, last week, the API reported that for the week ending Oct.
30, U.S. crude stocks jumped sharply by almost 8.0 million barrels,
while the DOE data showed a lower increase of 3.8 million, which was
within market expectations.
"I expect the API to be fairly neutral after the big builds in the
last two weeks," said Jason Chartrant, an analyst at GSC Energy of
Atlanta.
Other traders and analysts predicted that the crude data would go the
opposite direction and show a draw of between 1.0 million and 3.0
million barrels.
"The higher refinery runs will gobble up some crude," said Jim
Ritterbusch, a trader at Chicago-based Sweeney Oil.
As refineries increase runs after most of them have completed their
autumn maintainance turnaround, the poll participants said they
expected distillates stocks will show an increase of 1.125 million
barrels. Distillates include heating oil and diesel.
"The product in season is heating oil and the build is just right...a
colder winter is just around the corner," said a trader on the New
York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
The forecasters also saw a small draw of 1.1 million barrels in
gasoline stocks, saying demand was seen rebounding from the previous
week's low level. |
