Tom,
I'm getting the same feelings that a lot of people around here seem to have. Markets have bounced back, but it seems to me to be more a result of collective desire to pretend things are better than of any fundamental improvement. I almost wish things had fallen farther - I was expecting the Dow to slump as low as 6500, which might have been a real wakeup call. I was also expecting a new dive in Japan, hopefully a hard enough fall to crash the LDP. As it is, far too many people seem to be saying it's all over, back to business as usual. We're falling into the same complacency trap that so many of us criticize in the Japanese.
My opinion: Brazil is going to do a big, bad, dive, and people are going to look around the world and realize that all the scary nasties are still out there. Then we see another dump, maybe lower than my miscall for the last one. If it generates some real political will toward solutions, it will be worth it. I'm 3/4 cash, have been for a while.
Damn, we all sound pessimistic. I sort of hope I'm wrong, but I'm not willing to bet on it. If the worst mistake I ever make is buying a little late into the next bull market, I'll be happy.
Steve |
