Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Bill Wexler who wrote (15305)	11/11/1998 9:48:00 AM
From: larry	Read Replies (1) of 18691

Bill, I don't want to argue with you more about DELL. I have been a DELL bull for a long time and have not made a bad move on this issue a single time. Even correctly predicted that they would miss the whisper number last May and had a nice ride down from 98 1/2 to 80 sth. ALthough most of my $$ were made on the long side of DELL, I would not hesitate to raise my hammer if I saw a chance to make some nice $$$ on the down side. I have done a thorough research on DELL for the past 5 years and it has been a long time since they reported a Q over Q earning growth of more than 20%. If they can grow earnings at a 20% Q over Q clip, they will grow their earnings at a 100% year over year rate. Can DELL do so in such an environment? I don't think so. Also I am only putting a fraction of money I made recently on this potential move. So if I miss, I won't lose big. However, if I am correct, I will score big. BTW, no way is the Fed going to cut rate again next week and the market is ripe for a 500 point haircut before mid Decemeber. larry!

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