NATURAL GAS PRICING & RELATED / North American In Scope
NYMEX natural gas ends with gains on cash, cold temperatures
NEW YORK, Nov 10 - NYMEX Hub natural gas futures ended higher across the board Tuesday in a lackluster session, lifted by some technical buying after a powerful, winter-like Midwest storm firmed the cash early, industry sources said.
December climbed 3.6 cents to close at $2.478 per million British thermal units after trading between $2.401 and $2.485. January settled 3.4 cents higher at $2.603. Other deferreds ended up by 1.5 to 3.3 cents.
''They tried to break Dec below $2.43, but when they didn't find any stops, the shorts started to cover, particularly with cash firming. But I still think we're going lower - there's not enough (cold) weather out there to support these prices under a storage withdrawal cycle,'' said one Midwest trader, noting cash this month moved above bidweek levels because operators opted to conserve inventories early in the withdrawal season.
Estimates for Wednesday's weekly AGA storage report varied widely from a draw of 35 bcf to a build of 40 bcf. For the same week last year, stocks gained seven bcf.
WSC expects normal to slightly above normal Northeast and Mid-Atlantic temperatures Tuesday through Saturday. In the Southeast and Florida, readings will average normal to four degrees F above normal for the period.
In the Midwest, above normal temperatures Tuesday are expected to dip to below normal Wednesday, then moderate to near normal Thursday through Saturday. Below normal readings in Texas on Tuesday will warm to about normal levels later in the period. The Southwest will see below normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday moderate to near normal Friday and Saturday.
Chart traders said December's higher close today neutralized yesterday's bearish selloff. Resistance was pegged first in the $2.49 area and then at the newly-formed double top at $2.63-2.64. Major selling should emerge at the autumn highs at $2.715-2.719.
Support was seen in the mid-$2.30s, with further buying expected at last week's $2.24 low and then at the September 2 low of $2.14.
In the cash Tuesday, Henry Hub swing quotes on average firmed one to two cents to about $2.30. Midcon pipes were more than a nickel higher at about $2.30. In the West, El Paso Permian firmed about a dime to near the $2.30 level.
Swing gas at the Chicago city gate held steady in the low-to-mid $2.40s, while New York was flat to down slightly in the low-to-mid $2.50s.
The NYMEX 12-month Henry Hub strip gained 1.9 cents to $2.318. NYMEX said an estimated 47,197 Hub contracts traded today, down sharply from Monday's revised tally of 82,470.
U.S. spot natural gas prices steady to higher on cold
NEW YORK, Nov 10 - U.S. spot natural gas prices were steady to higher
Tuesday, with new strength derived from the arrival of cold weather in the northern and central plains, industry sources said.
Gas prices at Henry Hub were quoted mostly steady early in the mid- to high-$2.20s per mmBtu but then moved higher in tandem with futures into the low- to mid-$2.30s.
In the Midcontinent, swing prices were talked about six cents higher at $2.28-2.33, with Chicago city-gate prices pegged again in the mid-$2.40s.
A snowstorm struck the northern plains overnight, dumping ice, sleet and snow in North Dakota and Minnesota and bringing wind gusts of 70 mph.
In west Texas, cooler-than-normal weather continued to support the market. Lows in the 20s and 30s were seen in parts of New Mexico and Texas.
Permian Basin prices stretched to $2.24-2.34, while the San Juan market strengthened to $2.25-2.33, sources said.
Transwestern said it will perform maintenance on Wednesday and Thursday at its WT-2 compressor station, which will effect deliveries south of the station on the west Texas lateral.
In the East, Appalachian and New York city-gate prices eased into the low- to mid-$2.50s as milder weather dampened demand somewhat.
Temperatures are expected to cool in the upper Midwest on Wednesday and Thursday, with lows seen in the low-30s in the Chicago area, Weather Services Corp. said.
Forecasts for next week show below-normal temperatures in the eastern half of the U.S. and mostly seasonal weather in the western half, though sources warned that weather patterns during a La Nina season can be unpredictable.
Separately, estimates for Wednesday's American Gas Association storage report range widely from a withdrawal of 35 bcf to an injection of 40 bcf, according to a preliminary Reuters poll.
Canadian spot natural gas prices rebound on less supply
NEW YORK, Nov 10 - Canadian spot natural gas prices were mostly stronger Tuesday as linepack on NOVA's system deflated slightly and NYMEX tacked on more gains, industry sources said.
The bulk of the trading was done for two-day delivery since many offices will be closed on Wednesday in observance of Remembrance Day.
Linepack on NOVA's system in Alberta eased late Monday to about 12.943 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), though still surpassing the pipeline's target at 12.8 bcfd.
NOVA said an outage began Tuesday at 0700 MST at its Gold Creek Compressor Station and is expected to continue until about 1800 MST on Thursday.
Capacity upstream of the station in Segments 1-4 and partial Segment 7 will be 2800 mmcfd, NOVA said.
As a result, prices at Alberta's AECO storage hub rebounded into the low-C$2.60s per gigajoule (GJ), up an average of 15 cents from Monday's market.
Similarly at Station 2, B.C., prices jumped to about C$2.80.
At the Sumas/Huntingdon export point, prices rose another seven cents to US$1.98-2.05 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) as cold weather in the Northwest and Rockies kept buyers clutching onto the market.
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