You guys wanted predictions for Rambus revenues, well here it is. From this quote that I lifted from the post I am responding to:
"In all, Samsung expects the total available market for 128- and 144-Mbit DRAM to reach 60 million units in 1999. By itself, Direct RDRAM will account for global sales of $2.6 billion in 1999, reaching $13.5 billion in 2000, according to the company. "
Rambus will get about a 1% royalty on revenues of RDRAMs, so revenues to Rambus from RDRAM are expected to be about $26 million in 1999 and $135 million in 2000. Of course, Rambus has other revenue streams as well. So if Rambus' other business lines give them revues of $50 million in 1999 and $100 million in 2000, you get an optimistic $76 million revenues in 1999 and $235 million in 2000.
Currently, net margins are at 18%, if we optimistically believe they will rise to 30% (forget that 40% number someone else posted), we get net income of $22.8 million and $70.5 million for 1999 and 2000, respectively. If we use an est. 25 million shares outstanding, this translates into EPS of $.91 and $2.82 per share for 1999 and 2000.
So here's the real question: what will the stock price be?
At a PE of 100, it will be $91 at the end of 1999 and $282 at the end of 2000. We will more than likely see PE contraction, so it may not be as high as 100 by then. But it's at 240 right now, so who knows?
I hope this gives everyone a feel for where we will be in the short run. Good luck everyone! |
