"Correlation does not imply causality."
This is true. But tell me, did you buy MSFT and MDT because they started with the letter M? If you didn't, your point is invalid.
"Bottom line, the stock market is very close to a random distribution, "
Hmm, so you're one of these random walkers that believes that stocks trade at random? Do you actually believe that CD could have traded up the day after they issued their announcement of accounting irregularities? If you don't, then you agree that people make their trades for a reason. I believe that people buy and sell stocks for a reason. A coin does not land on heads or tails for a specific reason. My account balance is not where it is because I bought DELL, YHOO, and EBAY and held them. If my trades are a coin flip, then I've surely got an unbalanced coin, because it keeps landing on heads.
My trading account is up 208.2% YTD, and 249.75% since inception (12/9/97). That's on about 500 round trips. (yes, my broker loves me). To be fair though, I'd have to throw out a number of fundamental trades that I did. My CFON short which I initiated the first lot at 5 5/16 was one. I still wish I had paid a little more attention to the technicals on that one, as that rose to 15 1/2 immediately afterward. It is still my best trade of the year however. It would have been better if I had paid more attention to the chart though.
Barb |
