WARNING T/A STUFF
>>Some posters have tried to compare its chart to July and October 1997 pattern but I think we are here for new highs soon.<<
Huh? The Evening Star was dead on dude, which pretty much squashes the first part of your statement. As for the second part of your statement, why exactly is THQI going to be setting new highs soon?
Your concerns about the Fed possibly not cutting interest rates may be important at the macro level, but anyways they appear set to give us anouther cut at the November 17, 1998 FOMC meeting, probably 25 basis points.
Iraq at this point seems nothing more than an opportunity for THQI to make a good shoot 'em up style game. Besides, there is currently excessive Tomahawk inventory at the Sycamore Bunkers that needs to be utilized. You MUST see a Tomahawk in action one day, it is an AWESOME experience, as long as you're not on the receiving end!
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Dennis, draw Fibonacci Fans from the low on March 26, 1997 to the high on July 22, 1998. That becomes a very nice long-term look at this trend which began last Spring. THQI seems to need to hit the 50% retracement to reverse direction (9/30/97, 10/28/97, 3/17/98, 6/2/98). During weakness, the 61.8% line seems to be the final turn-around point (8/15/97, 8/31/98, 10/8/98). In strength, it is quite happy to turn around at or even well before the 31.2% line (7/9/97, 12/15/97, 1/19/98, 2/13/98, 8/5/98?).
Is THQI in strength, weakness, or normal conditions? Seems like the question is pretty important at this point in time. Most buy signals I am looking at trigger between the 50% and 61.8% lines, so I am going to wait until I see movement into that price range. If it does an about turn at the 31.2% line, I think it signals strength going forward, and that will be the time to buy.
Remember, THQI has pushed some games out into the future, so revenue is going to be more dependent on the top hits than was previously expected. Fortunately, Revenge & Rugrats should alone carry the weight, so anything else is icing on the cake.
My take, which is just one fools opinion, is that THQI is perceived as being weak right now, and will therefore fall further than we might like. However, I also feel THQI is stronger than ever, and is going to smoke earnings estimates, making them the wagon to jump on again. Therefore, I think we'll see $19.50 (and maybe lower), then another mad dash to all time highs. I think the price action simply reflects both the uncertainty in THQI's business, and the near flawless execution of their business plan by an excellent management team.
I think you meant 10/27 through 10/30 in your post, but I thought I'd ask just in case I am wrong.
aC, like you I prefer averaging UP, much more than averaging down :o)
Rugrat regards, JB
P.S. I want to second the comment about Andy's posting of THQI's new site, nice find buddy, thank you! |
