Tom,
There has been a definite upswing in Chinese activity around the Spratlys. It seems odd to me that they would pull this at a time when they know the VFA is under discussion - surely they know that these moves will be an incentive to the Filipinos to bring US forces back, which I don't expect the Chinese would see as a desirable outcome. I would have expected them to maintain a conciliatory stance and lobby against the VFA from behind the scenes, then move in after the agreement was rejected - which it probably would have been in the absence of any credible external threat. I have to wonder where this all fits into the overall foreign policy equation in Beijing.
The whole situation is, of course, complicated - even if American forces are in the area, it is by no means certain that they would have any mandate to defend the Philippine claim to the Spratly Islands. I also wonder about the claim that there are large mineral or oil deposits in the area. I've seen this written in many places, and never a shred of supporting evidence. Fishing rights are probably more of an issue.
Personally, I wouldn't mind a transient and muted American presence, but I don't think permanent bases would be a good idea. I would also hope they could maintain some control over the public behavior of the troops involved, though that would certainly be a major break from tradition.
Interesting times...
Steve |
