Proposal for Russia-Belarus-Yugoslav Federation Finds Fertile
Soil in Russia
During a visit to Russia on November 1-6, a delegation of the
five largest Yugoslav parties, led by Deputy Prime Minister of
the Yugoslav government and leader of the Serbian Radical Party,
Vojislav Seselj, promoted the idea of Yugoslavia joining the
union between Russia and Belarus. As part of the visit, the
delegation attended a joint session of the Russia-Belarus
Parliamentary Assembly on November 3 in Yaroslavl. Seselj, an
extreme nationalist denounced in the West as a war criminal, also
discussed the proposal with Russian Duma Speaker Gennady
Seleznyov, Russian Interior Minister Sergei Stepashin, Moscow
Mayor and presidential candidate Yuri Luzhkov, Communist Party
leader Gennady Zyuganov, and the Patriarch of Moscow and All
Russia, Alexei II. In addition, the Yugoslav delegation visited
the Russian Foreign Ministry.
Following the talks, Luzhkov, Zyuganov, and Seleznyov all
expressed their support for the creation of a Russia-Belarus-
Yugoslav Federation. Seselj received strong applause for his
anti-NATO and anti-Western tirades while addressing the Duma on
the final day of his visit. Commenting on the visit for BK-TV in
Belgrade, Seselj said that, "certain Western states are openly
hostile to us, particularly the USA and Great Britain," whose
goal is to "destroy our people and seize our territory." Seselj
made it clear that the proposed alliance would be designed to
politically and militarily counterbalance the West.
Seselj succeeded in gaining the support of a number of prominent
Russian leaders for a creation of a union of Slavic nations.
State Duma Chairman Gennady Seleznyov suggested that the next
meeting of the Russia-Belarus Parliamentary Assembly may decide
to grant permanent observer status to Yugoslavia. "The three
countries may sign an interstate agreement and then discuss
possible joint management of some affairs," Seleznyov said. He
went on to say that Russia is sympathetic with Serbian efforts to
prevent the disintegration of Yugoslavia. "Attempts to destroy
Serbia will continue. There is a desire to blow up Kosovo.
Montenegro is beginning to think of seceding from Yugoslavia.
Such attempts are undermining the country with which we have been
historically connected," Seleznyov said. The Duma speaker also
expressed his view that the idea of a Slavic union is becoming
increasingly popular in the region. According to Seleznyov,
Bulgaria is also currently considering the Slavic alliance
concept.
To promote his idea of Yugoslavia joining the Russia-Belarus
Federation, Seselj met on November 5 with Russian Communist Party
leader Gennady Zyuganov, who commented, "The idea of Serbia
joining the union of Russia and Belarus expressed during the
recent session of the parliamentary assembly of the union in
Belarus was very interesting. We have been expressing it for a
long time and believe that it can be carried out." In an
interview with the Russian news agency Interfax, Zyuganov said
that the Communist Party and its supporters "will do their utmost
to support Yugoslavia at this exceptionally difficult time."
Zyuganov added that, although the plan to establish the Russia-
Belarus-Yugoslavia union may at first appear infeasible, it
could, in fact, be carried out. As an example that such a
revolutionary idea, greeted initially with considerable
skepticism, could actually materialize, Zyuganov gave the example
of European integration and its perception after World War II.
As the leader of radical Serbian nationalists, Seselj had planned
his visit to Russia well, appealing to as many influential
political and even religious leaders as possible. His talks with
the Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia Alexei II were of special
significance. If the union between Russia, Belarus, and
Yugoslavia is to materialize, the Orthodox Christian church could
play a major role by pointing to the historical and religious
integrity of Slavic nations. The Orthodox Christian church has
been supportive in the past of a peaceful resolution of the
Kosovo problem, denouncing the U.S. threat to launch an attack on
Serbia. This offered the Serb nationalists a good starting point
for discussing the idea of a pan-Slavic union with the church.
The outcome of the talks held between Seselj's delegation and
Alexei II were not made public, however, and no official
statements regarding this issue have been released by the
Orthodox Christian church.
The support Seselj received from Russian nationalists and
communists for his proposal comes as no great surprise. Only a
few Russian politicians, including the chairman of the State Duma
Committee on International Affairs, Vladimir Lukin, expressed
skepticism about the feasibility of such a plan. This reflects
the fact that Russia is currently caught between two potential
futures – a return to communism and extreme nationalism on the
one hand, or total chaos and, eventually, military rule on the
other. The fact that even previously moderate and pro-reform
figures such as Yuri Luzhkov have now shifted their position
toward a more extreme form of nationalism suggests that the first
scenario is already taking place. After an hour-long meeting
with Seselj, Luzhkov told Interfax, "Any action against Belgrade
would therefore be an action against Russia and Belarus."
Luzhkov further encouraged the Serbian delegation by saying that,
"Although a typhoon of counteraction is bound to break out as a
result of this union, this is the correct direction along which
we must move." Luzhkov also said he would soon visit Minsk to
debate the union concept with Belarussian President Alexander
Lukashenko.
In his address to the Duma on November 6, Seselj called on other
"brotherly" countries, including Armenia, Greece, Cyprus,
Georgia, Kazakhstan, Romania, and Bulgaria, to join the new
alliance to "counterbalance the forces of NATO and the European
Union." Clearly, the Serbian nationalists are assuming that
Russia's historical allies and those nations in need a strong
ally in possible future conflicts may consider supporting the
idea of an anti-NATO alliance and, eventually, join it. Although
the unification of (mostly) Slavic states may appear to be a
fantasy of desperate nationalistic forces in Russia and Eastern
Europe, militarily and politically this concept may make sense to
the parties involved.
For example, although Yugoslavia shares no borders with either
Russia or Belarus, if Yugoslavia were to become a member of a
Russia-Belarus-Yugoslavia federation, then Russia could station
forces on Serbian and Montenegrin territory. This would
significantly constrain NATO's ability to intervene in ethnic
conflicts in Yugoslavia without risking a major military conflict
involving Russia. Russian troops in Yugoslavia would also
contribute to Russia's goal of blocking NATO's expansion into
Eastern Europe and limiting its geographic influence. While the
critical weak point in an expanded NATO's front line -- Slovakia
-- may now be remedied, a Russian deployment in Serbia would once
again make defending Hungary a nightmare.
Moscow has already begun to readjust its defensive posture for a
more explicit confrontation with NATO, recently stepping up its
military relations with Belarus in an effort to limit NATO's
eastward expansion. Russian press agencies RIA and Itar-Tass
quoted Colonel-General Yury Balyuevsky as saying that Russia has
lately re-deployed its troops along Belarus' western borders, a
statement later denied by the Defense Ministry. Russia's arms
sales to and defense cooperation with Greece and Cyprus, while
not likely to lead to their joining the union, still effectively
undermines U.S. and NATO interests by fueling the long-running
Greek-Turkish confrontation. Again, while perhaps not ready to
join a formal union, Armenia has largely aligned itself with
Russia, and remains in simmering confrontation with growing U.S.
ally Azerbaijan. Through Armenia, and possibly Georgia, Russia
can exert a strong influence on events in the Black Sea and in
the Kurdish area of Turkey, Iraq, and Iran. Turkey has even
alleged that Russia is harboring the leader of the rebel PKK in
Moscow. Finally, Russia still maintains a major political and
military presence throughout Central Asia. After Ukraine,
however, which is sliding inexorably toward Russia anyway,
Yugoslavia would be a prize jewel.
While at first glance a radical idea, incorporating Yugoslavia in
some way in the Russian-Belarus union makes sense. It offers
Yugoslavia a weighty shield against U.S. or NATO aggression, and
it gives Russia an inexpensive but very powerful lever with which
to disrupt NATO expansion. Top that all off with pandering to
the nationalist turned pan-Slavic crowd in both countries and you
have a deal. If it was just Ilyukhin or Zhirinovsky, the
perennial Russian lunatics, warming to this proposal, we'd be
inclined to discount it. But with Zyuganov, Seleznyov, and
Luzhkov on board, Western planners should seriously begin
considering the repercussions of a more substantial Russia-
Belarus-Yugoslavia alliance.
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