Paulo; have you been hibernating in a bear cave ...<VBG> ?
<<what if the outcome of this Iraqi skirmish is that Iraq is allowed to crank up production???? >>
Blasphemy !.... Leave no Oilfields unscathed...no Oil = no money for a chemical, biological, military or nuclear build up after we exit this time. Oil production infastructure must, and will be hit !
We have had some profit taking, and justifiably so. However, I did buy today as I think it is overdone;bought some front runners that I took profits on earlier during this run-up. RON FGII VRC GLBL and a couple of others. I'll be averaging in on any continued selloff here. What I like is that we have a well defined trading range that is just begging for either an ''event'' (read Iraq conflict), or improved fundamentals (read crude prices) to break us out into a new leg upward. I think we are at very ''fair'' - if not oversold values here. I would think that active traders love this volatility. We have pretty clear support levels on many, many stocks. I'd love a 3rd bite at the Apple here; shame on me - if I can't show a decent gain for the year with 3 opportunities to trade 3 separate 30-40-50% oilpatch runs here in just 3 months ! Half blew the 1st one, got most all of the 2nd, and believe I'm moving correctly with this, the 3rd one...(time will tell).
What I love here is the primary fact that we are able to buy here at a virtual 10 year low in crude prices & demand. What time or place has it not beeen incredibly profitable over time; to buy virtually anything at a 10 year low - especially a cyclical, commodity oriented sector ?
Also; when was the last time we were able to buy anything at a 10 year low, into the face of a possible ''major'' event (Iraq) that could trigger a substantial positive price spike; which just happens to be allmost simultaneous to an OPEC meeting and most importantly another Fed Cut - that is part of an Internationally coordinated stimulus/liquidity package that will greatly impact the fundamentals positively ?
If one executes efficiently; one can make money here (big money) by actively trading; shorting or just buying the bottoms, or dips and holding longterm. The Oilpatch has really offfered a little bit of everything for everyone. If one plans his trade and trades his plan
( love that one BD) - allmost anyone can make money here. The key is to not get too greedy if trading or shorting; far better to leave a few chips on the table. For the bottom-fishing value players with a longterm horizon - they are seeing tremendous opportunities here and now they have their 3rd entry point...
Me; I'm buying here; I am very happy to own longterm at these levels and I see little chance of falling to new lows here. I have the possibility of the Iraq catalyst; the probability of positive OPEC news and the allmost certainity of another Fed Cut. Just too many possibilities to not move in here imho.Bought the 1st wave today; and will average down into any further declines & still have good levels of cash to cherry pick any individual stocks that I like; that have those notorious, exaggerated 1-day blowoffs.
Paulo; Hoff has had some trading volatility with a couple big pops; are you still following it ? good luck; good to hear from you again.
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