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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology
STX 275.77+10.1%Nov 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: accountclosed who wrote (6309)11/12/1998 2:21:00 AM
From: William Epstein  Read Replies (3) of 7841
 
Antoine Roquentin;

If you say that I am primarily a TA you could be right however, I am not. I am a businessman and I was a CEO for more than a decade. I have a businessman's view of individual companies and their industries. In that sense, I am a fundamentalist. I assume that you have read my post, published just previous to yours, in which I stated my very basic view of SEG and its management, vs a v it's stock. A view I have held and reiterated from time to time. I have been attacked for it but I know, from life experience, that I'm right about, at least, that much.

As I have also said, Ney is dated. His books were published during the 1960's and 70's. His attitude toward the NSADAQ is one example and would be way off base today but at that time it was valid. I don't know how long you have been involved with the stock market but I have been since the late 60s and at that time the NASDAQ was very much like Dodge City. Few rules and they were ignored whenever it was convenient. The investor had almost no recourse and the MM's were real predators. His advice was very sound for that time. Not that they are much better today but, at least, there are some rules and some very expensive lawsuits, the SEC and their own listed companies have convinced the brokerage houses that sponsor the MMs to play it straight most of the time. At that time companies would go public on the NASDAQ and as their market cap grew they would move over to the NYSE or the American. Now the NASDAQ lists some of the largest market caps in the world. It is not so easy to play it fast and loose. They're being watched and they know it.

All this came at the expense of millions of poor investors who were bilked, conned, cheated, etc. Your talking to one. If you have read most of my posts then you might remember one in which I described how I was cheated of $50,000 on the NASDAQ by Bear Sterns. I had no recourse and had I to accept the loss. That was about 1984. So my hair brained ideas about the stock market aren't all borrowed from books. Many of the ideas I've formed and have shared here come from my own experiences with real money.

You ask why I don't trade SEG. I think it's self evident. What started out as a trade of 5000 shares became a trader's nightmare because I didn't follow my own rules. I held on for too long and was caught in a downward spiral. Then I rationalized by saying to myself that this was a sound company and the stock would recover. Now its 2 yrs. later and I'm still showing too much loss to dump it. I may decide to do it anyway. It is too large a chunk of my portfolio to ignore. 5000 shares bought at 38, I did dump 200 as part of another, more successful trade.

I entered this BB because I wanted to find out how other investors were faring and I also wanted learn what I could of the DD industry. My expectations were met in every way but I have endured the price for being outspoken. Nothing new for me. Some of the criticism was very valid and helped me to change some of my thoughts and some of it was just an attack upon my person. I do enjoy vigorous debate and try to do my research. Both skills learned at Columbia (Ney's alma mater too).

I don't ask that anyone subscribe to my way of thinking. I publish my thoughts when prompted and I am usually prompted and continue to be outspoken. I don't ask that you believe me but look at the results, over time and see if there is credence there. You know my views about the stock, the company and the specialist. You know what I think will happen in the near future and in the distant future, as well. Let's see if I'm right. The one thing that really irks me is that very few on this BB have the courage to make their own predictions known and to state their reasons. However, they find it easy to criticize anyone else. I suppose that shouldn't surprise me, it's simply human nature. Self preservation, so to speak. I'm still waiting for yours.
PHOTOMAN


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